Friday, September 25, 2015

Football 2015: Week Four

It's time to start getting down to business. The Aggies haven't played serious football for six consecutive quarters, so I'm not sure what to expect from them tomorrow. The television schedule is nothing special.

Tennessee at Florida:  The Volunteers are favored by 1.5 points in the CBS showcase game at 2:30. Texas A&M is 0-2 against Tennessee, with two bowl game losses. The latest defeat was a blowout (38-7) in the 2005 Cotton Bowl. The Aggies are 1-2 against Florida, with the most recent game being that 2012 loss at Kyle Field (20-17) in Manziel's debut. The one A&M win against the Gators was in the Sun Bowl while Emory Bellard was here. That was one of A&M's few dominating bowl game performances, so the formula says I should pull for Florida to win a mild upset. Bleacher Report predicts Florida 20 Tennessee 17. UPDATE: Florida won 28-27.

Oklahoma State (24) at Texas: OSU is favored by a FG against the stronghorns. I hate both teams, but I'd prefer an Okie State win. The game is on ESPN at 2:30 pm. Bleacher Report prediction: Stronghorns win 30-23. UPDATE: Oklahoma State took advantage of a late 4th quarter botched punt by Texas to win 30-27.

Texas A&M vs Arkansas: The game starts at 6:00 on ESPN, and the Aggies are favored by a touchdown. Arkansas has been stinking up the place in losses to Toledo and Texas Tech, and I hope they cough up one more week of inept football. Bleacher Report predicts A&M will win and cover the spread 37-26.

Mississippi State at Auburn: I haven't seen MSU play this year, and they're a FG underdog against an Auburn team that hasn't been making a positive impression lately. This game starts at 6:30 on ESPN2, so I won't see much of it. I might be able to catch the fourth quarter. The Bleacher Report prediction has Auburn winning this one by a touchdown (35-28). UPDATE: Auburn falls, loses to MSU 17-9.

Updated 7:26 PM Saturday: At the half, Texas A&M is ahead 10-7. This damn game is like I was afraid it would be. The Razorbacks have been killing themselves with penalties, but have been able to move the ball at will otherwise. The Aggie defense got one interception and one quarterback sack, and Kirk has been the whole show on offense, turning short passes into long ones with elusive running and raw speed. Right now, I'm just hoping the Razorbacks keep shooting themselves in the foot on offense, because I don't think the A&M defense can stop them without help.

Updated 9:32 PM Saturday: I spent most of the second half thinking that the truth about A&M had been revealed, that they are not yet ready to compete in the SEC. Arkansas dominated the game for most of the third and fourth quarters, using ball control to sustain time-consuming drives and build a 21-13 lead. The A&M offense was ineffective most of the night, with two promising drives ending in FGs and others in punts.

Late in the 4th quarter, the Aggies finally hit pay dirt, scoring a TD and the two-point conversion for a 21-21 tie with under three minutes remaining. It looked like Arkansas would drive for a winning FG, but the defense finally made a stop and recovered a fumble. One missed A&M field goal later, we were headed for overtime, just like last year. And the game ended just like last year, with A&M scoring a quick TD, and Arkansas losing on an incomplete 4th down pass. A&M wins 28-21.

Bottom line: Texas A&M won this game because they made five or six plays in the 4th quarter and OT that they absolutely had to make. Most of the night, the defense looked as bad as last year's, and the offense couldn't execute enough plays to maintain possession or score TDs with first-and-goal. Also, Arkansas helped them out by drawing penalties in crucial situations. All in all, I feel like the Aggies stole this win. I hope they aren't counting on doing that again next week, or the week after that. Was this A&M finding a way to win, or Arkansas finding a way to lose (again) ?

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