College Football News predicts that Alabama will beat Texas A&M 31-17 in the second SEC meeting of the teams. The betting line has fluctuated between 6.5 and 9.5 points, but the Aggies have never been favored by the oddsmakers.
I've decided the magic number in this game is thirty, The Aggies have surrendered an average of 29.5 points in their opening wins against Rice and SHSU, so it isn't a stretch to concede that Alabama could probably match that with 30 points. If Alabama scores 30, the Aggies need 31 or more to win. Since Alabama started collecting national championships under Nick Saban in 2009, only one opponent has scored 30 or more on the Tide defense. That was South Carolina with 35 in 2010, against a team that finished 10-3. The way I see it, an A&M win depends on a pattern being broken. The Aggie defense will need to hold Alabama to fewer points than Rice scored, or the offense will have to score more points than the Tide has given up to any opponent (except one) in four seasons.
Based on the three games the teams have played so far, the conventional wisdom is that Alabama has a big edge on defense, the Aggies on offense. Those perceptions may be skewed by the facts that several key members of the A&M defense have missed playing time due to suspensions, and that Alabama's offensive output was mediocre against Virginia Tech. CFN observes that against Virginia Tech, Alabama scored 21 points on two kick returns and an interception return, and really didn't need offensive fireworks for a convincing win.
Around Aggieland, people have been hyperventilating about this game since about February. Back then, I gave the advantage to Alabama at about 60/40. In the summer, when Manziel was being investigated by the NCAA, I moved that to 80/20. Now that Manziel has retained his eligibility and I've seen the A&M defense against Rice, I give a slight advantage to Bama. The big unknown for me is the Aggie defense. Can they force enough turnovers to limit Alabama scoring drives and set up Manziel for a few easy touchdowns? Will they let Alabama grind out 350-400 rushing yards and drain the clock?
Meanwhile, over in Austin, CFN expects Ole Miss will edge Texas 34-30.
Last week, Texas went to Utah and was demolished by BYU's running game. Mack-aroon immediately fired his defensive coordinator, but that didn't stop the wailing and whining among the orangebloods. Internet forum chatter focuses on replacing the coaching staff ASAP, but if the longhorns win Saturday, that should subside. Ideally for A&M, the longhorns will lose five games this year, enough to keep Texas tagged as mediocre but not enough to precipitate drastic change (yet).
Added 3:04 PM Friday: Eight writers participate in the Dallas Morning News college football prediction panel. One, Bill Nichols, chose A&M to beat Alabama. The other seven picked the Tide to win, but not cover the 7.5 point spread. Not surprising, since DMN is behind only the Austin American Statesman when it comes to anti-Aggie thinking. The same panel splits 5-3 on Ole Miss vs the longhorns, with the majority picking the Rebels to win an upset in Austin.
Added 4:20 PM Saturday: The Tide leads 28-14 at halftime. The game started like a replay of the 2012 game. The Aggies made things look easy, scoring on its first and second possessions, while Bama couldn't seem to get settled down. Since then, it's been all Alabama, with four unanswered TDs. My biggest worries are coming true as things stand. The Alabama receivers are running free, and their RBs are powering through the defense for first downs to sustain scoring drives. The Aggies blew one promising possession with an offensive pass interference penalty, and wasted another when a Manziel pass was intercepted in the end zone. That pick took the steam out of the offense, and they haven't made a dent in Bama's defense since.
Alabama may be able to turn out the lights with another 14 points. If Manziel has any magic left, he needs to show it in the second half. Unfortunately, the Tide defense has been all over him like white on rice. McCarron, on the other hand, is feeling no pressure whatsoever. It all comes down to a huge mismatch on defense. The Tide has a good one, the Aggies don't.
Added 5:27 PM Saturday: It's 42-21 as the final quarter begins, and the Aggies should be getting the ball. If Manziel can lead A&M to 22 points and the defense can shut out Alabama, this really will be the game of the century.
Added 6:20 PM Saturday: The Aggies needed to win the 4th quarter 22-0, but only managed to win 21-7. The one thing I did not imagine was a 49-42 game. I thought A&M would win if they held the Tide under 30, and they would have. I thought Alabama would win 31-28, or the Aggies would win 28-24.
The good news is that A&M has played the toughest game on their schedule, and faced the best defense. They will need to run the table starting next week, and they may be able to do that by winning a lot of shootouts. More good news: Manziel was good today, but the two interceptions he threw were the difference in the game. This game should be the end of stuff like Johnny Cam and Manziel Media 24/7. Even more good news: Sumlin and Saban are 1-1 against each other in SEC games, and both contests have been barn burners that were decided by 2-3 critical defensive plays. The long-range A&M goal should be to ensure that Alabama vs Texas A&M is the game that decides the SEC West every year. If A&M can build a first-rate defense to match its offense, that goal is within reach. In his first two years, Sumlin has shown he can compete with the defending national champion.
Added 10:36 AM Sunday: I feel better about things this morning after reading a reflection on A&M vs Alabama at the Good Bull Hunting blog. It also eases the pain to know that over in Austin, Ole Miss gave the longhorns a 44-23 stomping that will keep the teasips in turmoil for seven more days.
I've decided the magic number in this game is thirty, The Aggies have surrendered an average of 29.5 points in their opening wins against Rice and SHSU, so it isn't a stretch to concede that Alabama could probably match that with 30 points. If Alabama scores 30, the Aggies need 31 or more to win. Since Alabama started collecting national championships under Nick Saban in 2009, only one opponent has scored 30 or more on the Tide defense. That was South Carolina with 35 in 2010, against a team that finished 10-3. The way I see it, an A&M win depends on a pattern being broken. The Aggie defense will need to hold Alabama to fewer points than Rice scored, or the offense will have to score more points than the Tide has given up to any opponent (except one) in four seasons.
Based on the three games the teams have played so far, the conventional wisdom is that Alabama has a big edge on defense, the Aggies on offense. Those perceptions may be skewed by the facts that several key members of the A&M defense have missed playing time due to suspensions, and that Alabama's offensive output was mediocre against Virginia Tech. CFN observes that against Virginia Tech, Alabama scored 21 points on two kick returns and an interception return, and really didn't need offensive fireworks for a convincing win.
Around Aggieland, people have been hyperventilating about this game since about February. Back then, I gave the advantage to Alabama at about 60/40. In the summer, when Manziel was being investigated by the NCAA, I moved that to 80/20. Now that Manziel has retained his eligibility and I've seen the A&M defense against Rice, I give a slight advantage to Bama. The big unknown for me is the Aggie defense. Can they force enough turnovers to limit Alabama scoring drives and set up Manziel for a few easy touchdowns? Will they let Alabama grind out 350-400 rushing yards and drain the clock?
Meanwhile, over in Austin, CFN expects Ole Miss will edge Texas 34-30.
Last week, Texas went to Utah and was demolished by BYU's running game. Mack-aroon immediately fired his defensive coordinator, but that didn't stop the wailing and whining among the orangebloods. Internet forum chatter focuses on replacing the coaching staff ASAP, but if the longhorns win Saturday, that should subside. Ideally for A&M, the longhorns will lose five games this year, enough to keep Texas tagged as mediocre but not enough to precipitate drastic change (yet).
Added 3:04 PM Friday: Eight writers participate in the Dallas Morning News college football prediction panel. One, Bill Nichols, chose A&M to beat Alabama. The other seven picked the Tide to win, but not cover the 7.5 point spread. Not surprising, since DMN is behind only the Austin American Statesman when it comes to anti-Aggie thinking. The same panel splits 5-3 on Ole Miss vs the longhorns, with the majority picking the Rebels to win an upset in Austin.
Added 4:20 PM Saturday: The Tide leads 28-14 at halftime. The game started like a replay of the 2012 game. The Aggies made things look easy, scoring on its first and second possessions, while Bama couldn't seem to get settled down. Since then, it's been all Alabama, with four unanswered TDs. My biggest worries are coming true as things stand. The Alabama receivers are running free, and their RBs are powering through the defense for first downs to sustain scoring drives. The Aggies blew one promising possession with an offensive pass interference penalty, and wasted another when a Manziel pass was intercepted in the end zone. That pick took the steam out of the offense, and they haven't made a dent in Bama's defense since.
Alabama may be able to turn out the lights with another 14 points. If Manziel has any magic left, he needs to show it in the second half. Unfortunately, the Tide defense has been all over him like white on rice. McCarron, on the other hand, is feeling no pressure whatsoever. It all comes down to a huge mismatch on defense. The Tide has a good one, the Aggies don't.
Added 5:27 PM Saturday: It's 42-21 as the final quarter begins, and the Aggies should be getting the ball. If Manziel can lead A&M to 22 points and the defense can shut out Alabama, this really will be the game of the century.
Added 6:20 PM Saturday: The Aggies needed to win the 4th quarter 22-0, but only managed to win 21-7. The one thing I did not imagine was a 49-42 game. I thought A&M would win if they held the Tide under 30, and they would have. I thought Alabama would win 31-28, or the Aggies would win 28-24.
The good news is that A&M has played the toughest game on their schedule, and faced the best defense. They will need to run the table starting next week, and they may be able to do that by winning a lot of shootouts. More good news: Manziel was good today, but the two interceptions he threw were the difference in the game. This game should be the end of stuff like Johnny Cam and Manziel Media 24/7. Even more good news: Sumlin and Saban are 1-1 against each other in SEC games, and both contests have been barn burners that were decided by 2-3 critical defensive plays. The long-range A&M goal should be to ensure that Alabama vs Texas A&M is the game that decides the SEC West every year. If A&M can build a first-rate defense to match its offense, that goal is within reach. In his first two years, Sumlin has shown he can compete with the defending national champion.
Added 10:36 AM Sunday: I feel better about things this morning after reading a reflection on A&M vs Alabama at the Good Bull Hunting blog. It also eases the pain to know that over in Austin, Ole Miss gave the longhorns a 44-23 stomping that will keep the teasips in turmoil for seven more days.
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