Thursday, November 21, 2013

Football 2013: Week Thirteen

It's thirteen in '13, and the Aggies return to action in the first of two road games that end the regular season, and will ultimately determine how we evaluate 2013 when we look back on it.

The opponent is LSU, the location is Baton Rouge, and the line is 4.5 points. College Football News predicts another shootout, with LSU winning 45-38. That seems reasonable, given what we know about the porous nature of Texas A&M's defense.

My gut feeling for several weeks has been that A&M will win both of the last two games, or lose both. This year, the Aggies haven't produced a single totally impressive win against an SEC opponent. Even the victories have been marred by sloppy penalties, turnovers, and breakdowns on defense and special teams. We haven't come close to seeing what A&M is capable of doing if they played nearly flawess football, which is what I believe it will take to leave Baton Rouge with a 9-2 record. Unless Snyder has worked miracles with his defense since the Mississippi State game (51-41), the Aggie offense will need at least fifty points to beat LSU. The good news is, they might score that many if they don't waste possessions with fumbles, interceptions, and drive-stalling penalties.

My gut feeling is that if the Aggies can squeeze out a win at Baton Rouge, it could create a momentum surge that will get them past Missouri in the finale. Even at 7-3, LSU still has the look and reputation of a quality opponent, and the Aggies haven't beaten either of the two quality opponents they've played thus far. They need to prove they can do it. If LSU thumps them, though, my gut feeling is that it will pull the plug on this season, and the Missouri game will be a formality.

In the only other TV game worth mentioning, CFN expects Baylor will defeat Oklahoma State 45-38. That prediction sounds familiar. I'm having trouble accepting Baylor as an undefeated national championship contender, but that's not outside the realm of possibility. As much as I dislike OSU, I'm pulling for them to put an end to Baylor's dream season.

Added 4:32 PM Saturday: Holy fucking shit. Ugly uniforms, ugly weather, ugly football. LSU is ahead 21-10 at the halfway point, and it's only that close because LSU is being penalized so often. Unless the second half is a complete reversal, Manziel will be out of the running as a Heisman candidate. He's completed 8 of 22 pass attempts, one of which was a long (51 yard) touchdown with about a minute left in the second quarter. Other than that play, the offense is sputtering. With the exception of a few breakdowns, the Aggie defense has played pretty well, but unless the offense wakes up soon, this game will be the first blowout of the Sumlin era at Texas A&M.

Added 5:58 PM Saturday: For the first time since 2011, I've quit on an Aggie game in the fourth quarter. The score is 34-10 with just under eight minutes remaining, and since early in the first quarter this game has been exactly the kind of fucking crap I expected to see regularly when A&M announced it was moving to the SEC. It's been a comedy of errors, and LSU has been superior in every way. Thanks to Manziel, the Aggies have always been competitive, even in the four previous losses, but I'm afraid I'm getting a preview of what A&M football is going to look like for a while as soon as he's gone. Every quarterback eventually has a rotten game, and today Manziel had one.

Added  6:28 PM Saturday: Final score 34-10. Missouri is as good as LSU, probably better in some areas, so I expect the regular season to end 8-4. With luck, the bowl game opponent will be a team A&M can outscore.

Added 11:06 PM Saturday: It's not as nice as beating LSU, but tonight Oklahoma State took Baylor behind the woodshed and whipped their asses 49-17. That takes some of the sting out of A&M's defeat, since it shatters the dreams of everyone who loves the Bears. Hey, Baylor, eat a bucket of fuck.

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