Football 2018: Week Five

The realists among observers of Texas A&M football were 99.99 percent sure that the Aggies would be 2-2 heading into the Arkansas game at Arlington today (11:00 AM on ESPN), and that's exactly where things stand. Based on what I've seen in the first four weeks, A&M looks like a team that can be competitive in the remaining eight regular season games, and could win seven of them with a few lucky breaks here and there.

Arkansas is 1-3 and has been smoked in games they were expected to win. The Razorbacks are 20.5 point underdogs in the game today, and College Football News predicts the Aggies will roll (37-17).

Update 2:26 PM Saturday:  The game started with a 100 yard kickoff return and a 7-0 lead for A&M, and the Aggies were dominant until they'd increased the lead to 17-0. At that point, the team apparently decided the game was in the bag, and they started playing sloppy football. With just under two minutes remaining, the score was 24-17, and Arkansas had the ball with decent field position.

Arkansas and A&M have played five consecutive games in Arlington, and A&M won three of the first four in overtime. I had a sick feeling this game was also headed for a 24-24 tie, and started trying to estimate the odds against winning four OT games in a row against the same opponent. A late interception by Donovan Wilson made it a moot point. Maybe this will be a wake-up call for Jimbo's team. They'll have to be much better to beat Kentucky and South Carolina. I'll just say I'm not as confident now that A&M can compete with the best teams in the SEC West.

Other SEC games on TV that involve future A&M opponents, with predicted scores from College Football News:

• South Carolina (2-1) at Kentucky (4-0): Texas A&M's next two games will be against these teams, both of which appear to be at least as good as the Aggies, if not better. CFN expects the Gamecocks will squeeze out a narrow 23-20 win on the road. Update: Kentucky is the real deal, beat South Carolina 24-10.
• Ole Miss (3-1) vs LSU (4-0): The Rebels are 12-point underdogs, but CFN believes they'll beat the spread in a 31-27 loss. Update: Ole Miss got pounded by LSU, 45-16.
• Florida (3-1) at Mississippi State (3-1): The Bulldogs were dismantled by Kentucky in one of last week's major upsets, and although they're favored by a TD against the Gators, the pick is Florida in a close 24-20 win. Update: Gators win 13-6
• Southern Mississippi (2-1) is a four touchdown underdog at Auburn (3-1), and should be on the losing end in a 40-10 blowout. Update: Auburn won 24-13

 In the CBS showcase game at 2:30, Tennessee (2-2) is at Georgia (4-0), and the Bulldogs are expected to steamroll the Vols in a 48-13 blowout. Update: Georgia takes no prisoners in a 38-12 victory.