Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Football 2014: Week Six

The Aggies won impressively against (then) highly ranked South Carolina, and they've been mailing it in since then. Their lopsided scores came against creampuffs, and Arkansas might have beaten A&M last week except for several miscues in the 4th quarter.

So, having said all that, it's no great surprise that A&M is a 1.5 point underdog at Mississippi State this week. The Bulldogs mauled LSU for three quarters, and College Football News predicts they'll cover the spread with a 45-41 win in Starkville.

I watched the first three quarters of MSU's game at LSU, and their quarterback was impressive. Whether A&M can keep him under wraps is the biggest question I have about the game. The MSU pass defense is supposed to be porous, but the Bulldogs might be able to keep the A&M offense on the sidelines with grind-the-clock ball control. One thing is certain: the Aggies can't piss away three quarters like they did against the Razorbacks and hope to get home with a 6-0 record. Can they?

Added 9:32 AM Thursday: There's a good schedule of games on TV Saturday. If the A&M game gets to be unbearable, I'll switch to Florida at Tennessee on the SEC Network. After the Aggies play, Alabama (3) visits Ole Miss (11) in the CBS showcase game at 2:30 PM. This will be a must-see -- both teams are ranked, and A&M plays both later on. On ABC, Baylor (ranked 7th) takes on the longhorns in Austin. Most people expect BU will blow out TU, which is okay with me. I hate both of 'em, so I can't lose either way.

At 6:00 PM, LSU (ranked 15th) visits Auburn (5) in still another SEC bloodbath. Like the Tide and the Rebels, these are SEC West opponents pending on A&M's schedule, so I'll also be using this game as a scouting opportunity. By 10:00 PM Saturday, I expect to know a lot more about Texas A&M's 2014 prospects than I know today.

Added 10:40 PM: Alabama is favored by 5.5 points over Ole Miss, Auburn is a 7.5 point favorite over LSU, and Baylor is favored by 16.5 points over the stronghorns.

Added 10:42 AM Friday: The Good Bull Hunting stat simulation forecasts a narrow 33-30 Aggie win tomorrow.

Added 12:14 PM Saturday: Mississippi State leads 21-7 and may be one TD away from salting this game away. MSU is by far the strongest opponent A&M has played this year, and making matters worse, the Aggies have spent the afternoon stumble-fucking around. Another bad day at the office: penalties, turnovers, player ejections, dropped passes, etc. MSU has muffed a punt and fumbled once, keeping the game from turning into a complete rout.

Added 12:26 PM: Kenny Thrill has turned into Kenny Nil. The Bulldogs converted his second interception into another touchdown and a 28-7 lead in the second quarter. It's hard to see A&M winning this mess, so the goal now is to keep the score respectable.

Added 12:44 PM: The Aggies managed to add a FG and now trail 28-10 at halftime.

Added 1:50 PM: Now 41-17 in the third quarter. Mississippi State may be the most awesome team in the SEC. Or maybe they're very, very good and Texas A&M is nowhere near as good as their top ten ranking. I'm starting to think that A&M played an exceptionally sharp game against a South Carolina team that was overrated at the time, and wasn't tested again until they needed OT to sneak past Arkansas. Can A&M outscore MSU 25-0 in the fourth quarter? If not, color them 5-1.

Added 2:15 PM: Now 48-17 and there's enough time remaining to make it 62-17 the way the Aggies are performing on both offense and defense.

Added 2:42 PM: Two garbage time TDs for the Aggies. Final score 48-31, but it wasn't really that close. Now it's time to scout Alabama and Ole Miss, the next two opponents. If A&M doesn't get a lot better soon, they'll be 5-3 and watching their season go down the crapper. 

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