Thursday, November 7, 2013

Football 2013: Week Eleven

It's hard to believe that we're already nearing the end of another football season. Fortunately, many of the best games are yet to be played. Two that might be interesting are on TV tonight. In a sign that the world of college football is upside down, Oklahoma is a 14.5 point underdog at unbeaten Baylor in the early Thursday night game. Even so, College Football News predicts the Sooners will win 38-34.

The second game has national championship contender Oregon visiting Stanford. I haven't seen an Oregon game yet this season, so I'll probably watch some of this one tonight.

Saturday, Mississippi State is at Texas A&M in the 2:30 PM game on CBS. Most people believe this will be Johnny Manziel's last appearance at Kyle Field, which is a pretty goddamned depressing thought. The Aggies are favored by 19 points, and CFN predicts they'll cover the spread 41-20. I'm curious to see if the A&M defense can hold MSU to 20 or less.

The spotlight game in the SEC will feature LSU at Alabama, with the Tide favored by 12.5 points. This will be my final chance to scout LSU before they host the Aggies.

Added 11:00 PM Thursday: Is Baylor really good, or does Oklahoma just suck? Baylor won impressively in Waco (41-12), still plays Texas and Oklahoma State to determine who's the top dog in the BDF. I have too much history with Baylor (and Waco), and I hate those motherfuckers. In the big Pac 12 game, Stanford held off a 4th quarter surge by Oregon and won 26-20. I've been hearing about how awesome Oregon is, but I guess Stanford is even more awesome at this point.

Added 4:24 PM Saturday: The Aggies lead 23-14 at the half. Sloppy play (turnovers, penalties) have kept this closer than it needs to be. The defense has been adequate (other than one huge 51-yard TD run), and the special teams got a safety on a blocked MSU punt in the end zone. The first half has featured Manziel at both his very best and his very worst.

Added 6:40 PM Saturday: What do you get when the Aggies play one of their best games the same day they play one of their worst? You probably get a 51-41 Texas A&M win like the one they racked up today against Mississippi State. When the Aggies were sharp, they were scoring at will and playing rugged defense, even adding points from the punt coverage team. When they weren't sharp on offense, Manziel was lobbing interceptions, drives were sputtering under the weight of sloppy penalties, and a kickoff return for a TD was nullified by a penalty for showboating. When they weren't sharp on defense, an average MSU offense was gashing them for scores, long gains, and crucial first downs. Nothing has been easy for A&M this year, and if the Aggies give LSU and Missouri as much help as they gave MSU, they'll probably go 0-2 to close out the regular season.

Added 11:30 PM Saturday: Give LSU credit for making a fight of it into the third quarter, but class always tells, and in the SEC, Alabama is the head of the class. Final score 38-17. Even in a loss, Texas A&M gave the Tide a closer game. If Sumlin had Saban's defense, the Aggies would be nearly invincible this year.

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