Bearing down

In college football this season, things can change practically overnight. A few short weeks ago, Baylor was hovering near the top of the Big 12 South, and was a Top 25 team. TAMU was lingering at the bottom of the division after suffering three consecutive defeats, including an embarrassing manhandling by Missouri.

Since then, the Aggies have reeled off three straight wins, each more impressive than the one before, and Baylor has taken a 55-28 whipping by Oklahoma State that apparently was more one-sided than the score indicates. As a result, the Aggies are moving up and the Bears are moving down. Their paths converge tomorrow in Waco, with TAMU slightly favored.

Baylor has beaten Texas and Kansas State and is having, by their standards, a dream season. TAMU has beaten long-time nemeses Texas Tech and Oklahoma back-t0-back, and Aggies are feeling better about football than they have in several years. Baylor lost to Texas Tech and was hammered by Okie State. The Aggies beat Tech, and were on the way to beating Okie State until a total collapse in the second half led to a narrow 38-35 loss. Of course, comparing scores against common opponents is often a waste of time.

It would make Baylor's year to beat both old SWC rivals (Texas and the Aggies) in the same season. The Aggies need to win two of their last three to reach 8-4, a record that would signify a solid recovery was underway in College Station. A loss to Baylor would require them to sweep Nebraska and Texas to make it, and might even put 8-4 out of reach.

For a long time, the Aggies defeating Baylor every year was a given. The wins might have been close, or they might have been routs, but they came consistently. Since the Franchione years though, things have gotten iffier and beating the Bears is no longer a sure thing. It won't be easy, but it would be a meaningful win if the Aggies can pull one off tomorrow.

Added 7:30 pm, Saturday: The more I thought about it, the more the Baylor game started to look like a trap game for the Aggies. Coming off back-t0-back wins over Tech and OU, spending the week listening to other Aggies gushing about how great they had suddenly become, and looking ahead to Nebraska and the finale against a vulnerable longhorn team. Add all that up and it spells trouble. Baylor is too talented this year to be taken lightly, and the Aggies have reverted to their early season habit of beating themselves with penalties and turnovers. The result is that Baylor is kicking the shit out of them in the first half and if something doesn't change soon, will beat them worse than Missouri did. The moral of the story is that anytime something looks too good to be true, it probably is.

Added 10:12 Saturday: Another reversal of fortune. One of my superstitious football rituals is to change the channel when the Aggies get more than two scores behind in a TV game I really want them to win. My thinking is that a spectacular comeback is more likely if I'm not around to see it. I'll admit this tactic hasn't worked very often over the last 4-5 years, but when Baylor went up 30-14 in the second quarter tonight, I decided I'd better dust it off. And guess what ? It worked. Somehow an Aggie defense that seemed ready to let Baylor score at will all night was notified that I'd turned the game off. They stiffened up and held BU without a score from that point on, and the offense started lighting up the scoreboard themselves. Aggies 42, Bears 30. The cornhuskers are up next, so things don't get any easier. But this game was another step in the right direction.