Wednesday, October 6, 2021

FOOTBALL 2021: COVID Version Week 6

This week, the topic is corners.

The 2021 season went south quickly for Texas A&M, and the offense led by Zach Calzada has struggled to score in games against Colorado, Arkansas and Mississippi State. Things won't improve this week, and will probably get worse, with Alabama coming in as a 17.5 point road favorite. The only question is whether the A&M defense can play well enough to keep the Tide from covering the spread (doubtful, but not completely impossible).

Since A&M left the comfort of the old Southwest Conference for the Big 12, one thing has consistently been true: Every time the Aggies have a good season, we think they've finally turned the corner. Then, we find out that around every corner, there's a brick wall or concertina wire (or both) instead.

R.C. Slocum turned his corner in 1998 with an 11-3 record and the Big 12 championship. In 1999, the Aggies slid back to 8-4, and Slocum was on his way to the exit door.

The next guy, Dennis Franchione, finally had a good season (9-4) in 2006, but around the corner was a mediocre 7-6 record in 2007. Mike Sherman, who replaced Franchione, duplicated Fran's results in 2010 (9-4) and 2011 (7-6).

After Sherman came Kevin Sumlin, whose 2012 debut season was sensational at 11-2, featuring a Heisman winner, an upset victory at Alabama, and thumping Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. Aggies everywhere hoped the final corner had been turned, but Manziel was injured in 2013. The record fell to a disappointing 9-4, followed by three consecutive seasons of 8-5 mediocrity, then Sumlin's departure.

Jimbo Fisher seemed to have turned HIS corner with an impressive 9-1 record in the first COVID version of college football. Instead of contending for the 2021 SEC West title, I'm seeing maybe three possible Aggie wins (Missouri, South Carolina, Prairie View) left on the schedule, and four likely losses against Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss and LSU. If Jimbo can coach this team to nine wins again, maybe he really has turned his corner. Not holding my breath, though.

Update 3:05 PM Friday:  

College Football News predictions for the best games of the weekend: Alabama covers the spread, defeating A&M 31-13. Georgia, favored by 15.5 points at Auburn, can't cover the spread with a 30-16 win on the road. Arkansas, a 6-point underdog at Ole Miss, pulls off the upset 30-27. Finally, Oklahoma is favored over Texas U by 3.5 points, but longhorns get a 31-27 win over their future SEC rival. 

Second update 3:23 Saturday: Nobody's playing defense today. In the BDF, the sooners were able to win the game and cover the spread, knocking off the longhorns 55-48. Then in the SEC West, where defense is normally required. Ole Miss won straight up without covering the spread in a 52-51 shootout worthy of the BDF. Georgia manhandled Auburn in a 34-10 road win.

Final update 11:08 PM Saturday: I was pessimistic about A&M's ability to give Alabama a contest, but an hour before kickoff I decided to watch the game until the Aggies were behind by 14 points. I expected that would be around ten minutes into the first quarter. The joke was on me, since A&M never fell behind by two touchdowns. In fact, the Aggies were ahead most of the time and played well enough on offense, defense, and special teams to pull off a 41-38 upset of the Number 1 team in the country. Zach Calzada has improved as a quarterback since the Arkansas and MSU losses.

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