Thursday, September 6, 2018

Football 2018: Week Two

The second week of the new season, and there are even fewer interesting games on the tube than there were last week. One of the TV games is a big one, with legitimate national championship contender Clemson visiting Texas A&M at 6:00 PM Saturday on ESPN. The Tigers are favored by 12.5 points.

This is one of those super-hyped games that don't usually involve A&M; the last one I recall was Texas A&M at Alabama in 2012. The Aggies beat the Tide thanks to one of the most exciting performances by a quarterback I ever saw, and it's not exaggerating much to say that particular A&M win probably had an effect on the lives of a lot a people, especially Johnny Manziel and Kevin Sumlin. In one afternoon, the bar was set so high for Sumlin that he spent the next five seasons seeking a comparable Big Win and never getting it. The win made Manziel, a redshirt freshman, a potential candidate for the Heisman, and put him on the Too Much, Too Soon track that probably explains why he's playing football in the CFL now.

But back to Saturday's matchup against Clemson. This game has all the bells and whistles in terms of media hype, and ESPN Game Day will be on campus. Jimbo Fisher has been coaching against Clemson in the ACC, so he should have a good idea of what his team's up against, and that gives the game an element that Kevin Sumlin vs Nick Saban lacked in 2012.

The ideal outcome would be a convincing A&M win along the lines of 35-21. The next best thing would be a narrow upset win thanks to a few lucky breaks resulting from Clemson mistakes. Neither of those possible outcomes are likely, and College Football News predicts the Clemson defense will overpower the A&M offense in a 33-17 Tiger win.

I can't decide which would be more painful: A&M narrowly losing a game they had a realistic chance to win, or A&M being embarrassed in a blowout. The final score forecast by CFN isn't close enough to be a demoralizing near-miss, or a wide enough margin to rank as a humiliating defeat either. Maybe a 16-point loss is a reasonable compromise, assuming a major upset isn't in the cards.

UPDATE: I didn't think it was possible, but this was a game A&M might've won if the officials hadn't made a questionable call on an Aggie fumble in the fourth quarter. As it was, Clemson was lucky to get out of town with a 28-26 win, and Texas A&M has the look of a team that's finally ready to play SEC football.

The best early SEC game (ESPN at 11:00 AM) has Mississippi State at Kansas State, with MSU favored by 9.5 points. These two teams have combined to ruin more weekends for Aggie fans since 1996 than I want to think about. Since both of them can't lose, I guess the 34-26 Bulldog win predicted by CFN would be worth seeing. I still despise the Big 12 conference.

Update: MSU handed K-State a 31-10 dose of SEC-style whupass.

The SEC showcase game on CBS at 2:30 features Georgia at South Carolina, with Georgia the 10-point favorite. Many people think South Carolina will be pretty good in 2018, and CFN thinks this will be a hard-fought 26-20 win for Georgia.

Update: Georgia proved the Gamecocks aren't in their class in a 41-17 blowout.

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