Thursday, September 1, 2016

Football 2016: Week One

A lot of my time and energy has been spent dealing with death and destruction since Texas A&M slopped through a loss to Louisville in their bowl game. I guess that explains why I barely noticed another football season slipping up on me from behind.

Usually, the first weekend of college football has a bunch of nothing games, with possibly two or three potentially worth seeing on TV. With that in mind, I was surprised to find so many promising Labor Day weekend games this year. As usual, I'm interested in games involving SEC teams, and occasionally games that showcase former A&M rivals from the Big Dumpster Fire (Big 12 minus 2).
  • The weekend games begin tonight with SEC East bottom-feeders South Carolina and Vanderbilt. The Commodores are favored by four points, but College Football News predicts the Gamecocks will win by a FG on the road (20-17). UPDATE: South Carolina won an ugly game 13-10. CFN predicted the winner and the margin, overestimated the scoring capabilities of the offenses by a TD each.
  • The only Friday game I might watch is Kansas State at 8th-ranked Stanford. It's unusual to see K State playing a strong non-conference opponent, and Stanford is a 14.5 point favorite. CFN sees it as a close 26-20 win for Stanford, but I hope it's more one-sided than that. UPDATE: Stanford beat KSU 26-13,  so CFN picked Stanford's score on the money. They're 2-0 so far.
Which gets me to the Saturday lineup:
  • Missouri @ West Virginia: The SEC East against a middle-of-the-pack BDF opponent. I hate Mizzou, and West Virginia is favored by 10 points at home. CFN calls it 27-23 for the mountain boys. I could live with that. UPDATE: West Virginia wins at home 26-11.
  • The other 11:00 AM game has the highest-ranked BDF team, 3rd-ranked Oklahoma, playing BDF wannabe Houston (ranked 15th). Although Cougar High has been impressive lately, the Sooners are favored by 11.5 points, and CFN thinks they'll cover the spread with a 38-23 victory. UPDATE: UH beat OU 33-23, which means they'd own the BDF if they were allowed to be a member.
  • The 2:30 games are LSU vs Wisconsin (at Green Bay) on ABC, and UCLA at Texas A&M on CBS. The Tigers are ranked 5th by AP, and are a 10-point favorite. CFN predicts the Badgers will beat the spread in a 23-17 loss. UPDATE: The Badgers stun the SEC with a 16-14 upset of LSU.
  • UCLA is also ranked in the AP Top Twenty (16th), but for reasons I'm unable to comprehend, the Aggies are favored by a FG at home. In the Sumlin era, an Aggie home-field advantage has been non-existent against ranked opponents, so I'm skeptical. CFN sees a push, with A&M eking out a narrow 27-24 win. I'll believe it when I see it, but I'll take it. It's time for something good to happen at Kyle Field. UPDATE: The Aggies are clinging to a 24-16 lead with 4:19 remaining in the game. This is tense. SECOND UPDATE 6:49 PM: The Aggies collapsed late in the 4th quarter, and blew a 24-9 lead. Then they played tough in OT and won the game 31-24. Shit, I don't know if I'll be strong enough to watch many more games like this one.
  • At 4:30 PM, Georgia (18th) plays North Carolina (22nd) at Atlanta (ESPN). The Bulldogs are only favored by 2.5 points, but CFN thinks they'll give the Tar Heels a 37-17 stomping. UPDATE: The Bulldogs won 33-24, and the SEC needed a good win after LSU, Missouri, and Mississippi State lost.
  • At 7:00 PM, top-ranked Alabama plays Southern Cal (20th) at Arlington. This is an early preview of A&M's nemesis in the SEC West. The Tide is an 11 1/2 point favorite, but CFN thinks the Trojans might keep it close in a 27-20 Bama win. UPDATE: Wrong. On a day that saw OU and LSU knocked off in upsets, Alabama wasn't taking any prisoners. The Tide rolled the Trojans 52-6 and sent a message to the college football world.
  • Finally, at 8:00 PM, Clemson (2nd) takes on Auburn as a 7.5 point favorite. CFN forecasts a 37-30 shootout, with Clemson holding on for the win. UPDATE: They struggled with Auburn, but Clemson finally edged them in a 19-13 win.
On Sunday, Notre Dame (10th) visits the unranked Strong horns as a 3.5 point favorite. I'll despise Texas U forever, so I hope CFN's prediction of a 23-20 Irish loss is wrong, wrong, wrong. UPDATE: Fuck Notre Dame. Losing to the Strong horns 50-47 in two OTs is totally unacceptable and inexcusable.

Finally, Monday night we get Florida State (4th) vs Ole Miss (11th). The Rebels are supposed to be better than the Aggies this year, but they're still a 4-point underdog against the Seminoles. The CFN prediction: FSU will cover easily, 34-24.  UPDATE: Wow. Ole Miss was ahead 28-6 in the first half when I switched from this game to an old movie. When I returned to the game, FSU was ahead 39-34 in the 4th quarter. They added two FGs to win the game 45-34. I think they said it was the biggest comeback win in FSU history. Ole Miss looks good, but the Seminoles look better. Tough weekend for the SEC.

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