Thursday, November 22, 2018

Football 2018: Week Thirteen

Will this be Lucky 13 for Texas A&M? Will the Aggies finally beat LSU as a member of the SEC West? Can the arrival of Jimbo Fisher be the transforming event that will enable the Aggies to nail down an 8th win in their final regular season game? For that matter, can the Aggies win a last regular season game against ANYBODY for the first time since 2012, when Manziel was in his prime?

Thanksgiving weekend is here, with the usual assortment of traditional rivalry games on television, starting tonight on ESPN at 6:30 PM. Mississippi State (7-4) is favored by 11 points against Ole Miss (5-6), and should win 37-24 according to College Football News. My formula requires me to hope the Rebels pull off an upset instead. Update: Mississippi State poured it on, 35-3. So much for that.

For some reason, Texas A&M is a narrow (2.5 point) favorite Saturday at 6:30 PM on the SEC Network. LSU's defense is strong, but the offense is fairly mundane. CFN thinks the Aggies can use ball control and special teams (punting) to grind out a 24-20 win. I've been expecting LSU to win this game since last summer, so an Aggie win of any kind, by any score, will be a pleasant surprise. I expect LSU will win 27-13, and I hope I'm way off the mark as usual.

Update 10:44 PM Saturday: The LSU @ Texas A&M game from hell... it simply refuses to die. Tied 49-49 after the third overtime. Somebody has to lose this motherfuckin' game eventually.

Last word, 11:58 PM Saturday: The Aggies won the game on the last play of the 7th overtime period, when Kellen Mond completed a pass for a 2-point conversion, making the final score 74-72. Before the game, I imagined at least a dozen ways LSU could win the game, and a couple of ways A&M might win it. None of them involved A&M scoring 74 points in a game with seven overtime periods. Un-fucking-believable. No one has ever watched the Aggies win a game like this one before tonight, since there have only been five of them in history.

Arkansas (2-9) plays at Missouri (7-4) on Friday (CBS at 1:00 PM) as a big underdog (three touchdowns), and Missouri is the CFN pick to win 48-31. I'd like to see the Razorbacks win this game, but it won't happen. Update: There's a reason Arkansas was 2-9, and they're 2-10 now. Missouri steamrolled them 38-0.

Saturday's rivalry games involving SEC teams, with CFN score predictions:
  • Georgia Tech (7-4) at Georgia (10-1) on SEC Network at 11:00 AM. The Bulldogs have too much of everything, and should roll 38-17. FINAL SCORE: Georgia 45-21
  • Florida (8-3) at Florida State (5-6) on ABC at 11:00 AM. Favored by 5 points, the Gators will knock off FSU by a touchdown, 34-27. FINAL SCORE: Florida 41-14
  • Auburn (7-4) at Alabama (11-0) on CBS at 2:30 PM. Auburn is a 24.5 point dog on the road, and Bama should handle them easily 38-10. I'm still pissed off about A&M blowing a late lead to Auburn a few weeks ago, and I want Alabama to give Auburn the whipping the Aggies couldn't deliver. FINAL SCORE: Alabama 52-21
  • South Carolina (6-4) at Clemson (11-0) on ESPN at 6:00 PM. This game is of interest to me only because TAMU played both teams this season. At the time the games were played, Clemson was a quality Aggie loss, and South Carolina was a quality Aggie win. In this one, Clemson is a huge (26.5 point) favorite, and should dismantle the Gamecocks 40-17. The formula says I want Clemson to lose, but it ain't happening. FINAL SCORE: Clemson 56-35

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